Booksmart Breakdown

Did you know that a region within Moldova has its own passport, flag, and national anthem and functions as a fully autonomous state? Did you know that this “country” is not recognized by any state currently within the UN but that a war was fought for its sovereignty in the early 1990’s?

Transnistria is complicated. Many people have never heard of it, and writing about it has proved difficult. Does one only talk about Transnistria without discussing Moldova? Can Moldova be discussed without also understanding Romania and Russia? Unlikely, so in discussing one autonomous territory, it will be required to back up and examine a bit about the entire region. 

Romania, Transnistria, Moldova, and parts of Ukraine are at the crossroads between the East and West. The edge of the Western Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the Russian Empire as they stretched their influences as far as their armies would go—a constant border. Trade, war, religion, and ideology intersected here in wonderful, horrible, and messy ways. 

This article will first explain Transnistria and what has been happening now. For those who love learning a little about the past, the article will then look at a brief history of the region and discuss a little more about Moldova and Gagauzia, another autonomous region in the country. 

What Happened in Transnistria and What’s Happening Now

For some people, however, this is probably the first time Transnistria has come up. Technically speaking, this country is not a country at all. Technically speaking, Transnistria is part of Moldova.  

The autonomous state is considered to be part of Europe’s “frozen conflicts.” While it is a semi-independent state within Moldova, it is not internationally recognized. No UN member country accepts Transnistria as a member of the UN, and only three non-UN member states do. That means the roughly 465,000 citizens of Transnistria are currently in limbo.

As with other Soviet states, internal divisions within Moldova became pronounced in the late 1980s as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) began to dissolve. All over the Eastern bloc, tensions flared while each country faced the choice of staying in the USSR or leaving the republic. Many political and ethnic conflicts broke out as states applied for UN membership or sought to remain aligned with Russia. 

Moldovans were not united in their desire to leave the Soviet regime, and no agreement was ever reached. In 1990, those who wanted to stay in the USSR formed the breakaway country of Transnistria and declared independence from Moldova.  

From 1990-1992, there was a civil war between Moldova and Transnistria (with some support from Russia), with the heaviest fighting seen during the last few months after Moldova officially left the USSR in 1991 and was accepted into the UN in 1992. Roughly 700 people died. 

In July of 1992, both sides agreed on a ceasefire that still holds today. A peacekeeping mission of Moldovan, Transnistrian, and Russian forces still guards the area. In 2006, a referendum saw 97.2% of Transnistrians voting in favor of independence from Moldova to reestablish ties with Russia with the possibility of joining with Russia again in the future. While some took this referendum as a political stunt by Transnistrian leadership, it does showcase a large percentage of people who wish to become separate (should these numbers be legitimate).    

Aside from the previously mentioned symbols of independence, Transnistria also has a unique currency and an exceptionally modern football (soccer) stadium. They also have a standing military and police force. But it has some costs. 

Freedom House gave Transnistria the distinction of “not free” with a ranking of 18/100 (6/40 for political rights and 12/60 for civil liberties). Many businesses around town are owned by one group, the Sherif group, which, among other things, owns grocery stores, gas stations, and even that premier soccer stadium. Rumors of corruption and illegal activity have spread widely. 

The murky legality of this breakaway region allowed for a black market economy to thrive – smuggling being the primary game. Guns, humans, and food have all allegedly passed through Transnistria’s land en route to other locations, such as the Port of Odessa, or staying within the country. It should be said that the legitimacy of those claims has been contested. Geopolitics may have curbed these practices, however. It has been said that the increased security at the Ukrainian border due to the Russo-Ukrainian War has mitigated some of the illicit trade. 

Russia is still considered a close ally that provides helpful resources for Transnistria’s economy and government. Transnistria received gas from Russia for years, as well as many salaries, pensions, and financial packages. With that said, exports from Transnistria to Europe have been growing, with Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova receiving the most Transnistrian products. Russia’s trade with the unofficial state has been decreasing, and it is now Transnistria’s fourth largest trade partner.  

There are also about 1,500 Russian forces still operating as peacekeepers there. Though only 50-100 of these troops are actually from Russia, the rest are people from Transnistria who were given Russian passports. There is no indication that these forces would be willing to fight in the Russo-Ukrainian war. In fact, some are worried that their dual Russian citizenship would rope some Transnistrians into a war they want no part of. 

Another worry is that a tit-for-tat escalation caused by poor communication (or intentional distraction) could increase tensions with its neighbors. This can be seen in the 2023 Russian military exercises that were not conveyed to Moldova. Other flashpoints have been more visceral. 

In 2022, Transnistria saw two of its radio towers bombed, both of which broadcast in Russian, the predominant language. Transnistria accused Ukraine, while Ukraine accused Russia. 

How this will play out is unclear because Transnistria has become a haven for roughly 20,000 Ukrainian Refugees, with some 63,800 Ukrainians entering the autonomous state since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Moldova has seen many more enter and stay. The sad fact is that Ukrainian refugees were in Transnistria when the radio towers were bombed, and some chose to leave because of the attack.

Making things even more tense, Ukraine has suggested that now may be the time to deal with the “Transnistrian problem” and has even offered Moldova help in doing so. Quickly surrounding Transnistria and taking control of its people and 1,500 Russian soldiers would be a sound bargaining chip and a way to secure Ukraine’s west. In March, Transnistria accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate its leadership, something Ukraine denies. 

An old arms depot from the Cold War is also in Transnistria. It has an estimated 20,000 tons of ammunition and is considered the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. While many of the arms and ammo may be expired or close to, it would still be a valuable resource. 

Some of the more hawkish in Moldova saw Azerbaijan’s recent invasion of Armenia as a warning to themselves and have started seeking a resolution of Transnistria, even if it must be solved through force. With that said, the overall Moldovan approach seems to be much calmer, with the focus being on maintaining the status quo with Transnistria while slowly diversifying its energy sources so that it is not as dependent on Russian gas being turned into electricity on Transnistrian soil. 

Shortsighted suggestions from Western sources, such as the West arming Moldova to force reunification with Transnistria in the interest of becoming an EU member, only escalate tensions. These solutions are rooted in a Cold War mentality that does nothing to address the issues on the ground.

For now, Transnistria has been playing a balancing game between the west and east. While never outwardly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Transnistria has shown no willingness to be dragged into the conflict meaningfully. Sure, some factions within the autonomous region wanted Russian forces to cut through Ukraine and make it all the way to Transnistria’s border – but once Ukraine started openly discussing the possibility of working with Moldova on a “solution,” others in the self-declared country began weighing other options.

While many in Transnistria and Moldova may be trying to keep the status quo for as long as possible, Moldova has repeatedly accused Russia of waging a “hybrid war” against the country. These have come in the form of disinformation campaigns, mobilizing protestors (some rumored to be getting paid), and hiking up gas prices. 

There were also some rumblings that Russia was planning a coup that Moldova thwarted. Moldovan President Maia Sandu came out in early October 2023 and accused the Wagner Group of orchestrating the attempt. The worry now is the intelligence reports of millions of euros coming into the poorer country as bribes for pro-Russian supporters and whether that could internally destabilize the situation.   

These tactics are well known at this point. Variations can be seen all across the region, summed up nicely by a Latvian author specializing in hybrid war. Latvia, Estonia, and Georgia, among others, have accused Russia or Belarus of hybrid campaigns within the last few years. 

The fears have grown large enough that Moldova’s new National Security Strategy labels Russia as a threat instead of a strategic partner – a notable deviation from previous editions. It also listed a key security concern as the peaceful resolution of the Transnistrian conflict and the removal of Russian troops from Moldovan borders. Moldova may be playing the long game with Transnistria, but there is no illusion that the leadership does not want to reintegrate them back into the Moldovan fold. 

A Brief History of Moldova and the Region 

The Moldovan State has been around in some capacity since the 1300s. Throughout the years, the area has had many names: Basarabia, Bessarabia, the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic, and now the Republic of Moldova. In 2008, Moldova celebrated its 650th anniversary. This is not a new people or identity. 

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/moldovas-geopolitical-significance

It should be said that while there were many cultural and linguistic similarities between Moldova and Romania, nothing was binding all of this region together before the 1900s except a brief unification of Transylvania, Moldova, and Wallachia (modern-day Romania and Moldova) in 1599 that lasted for two years. These lands were unified by Mihai the Brave, who revolted against the Ottomans. Today, those who seek to unite all Romanian territories reference this moment in history as a point of pride and historical proof justifying “reunification.” 

In 1812, Russia annexed much of what is now Moldova (as well as part of Ukraine) from the Ottoman Turks after six years of war. The Turks kept control of Romania until 1877. Before and during the conflict, Russia occupied the eastern half of Moldova after seeing the Ottoman Turk’s power diminishing. 

Russia controlled Moldova for the next century, and over that time, it “Russified” Moldova with its language, culture, and religion. Freedoms and autonomy were slowly eroded. The official language of Moldova became Russian, and Romanian Orthodox institutions were changed to Russian Orthodox.

In 1918, Moldova and Romania were united after the end of World War One, but only for a brief time. Discussing the complexities of WWI or the aftermath is beyond the scope of this article; however, it should be noted that Romania militarily intervened in Moldova at the end of WWI. In late 1917, Moldova’s National Council voted for independence after the Bolsheviks overthrew the Russian Tzar government, which sparked conflict throughout the region. On 9, Moldova and Romania signed the Declaration of Union. A full discussion of the conditions of the agreement and the run-up to the agreement can be found here. 

History is rarely as simple as it is painted years later. Nowhere is that clearer than in World War Two. In 1940, Moldova was again seeded to Russia as part of a non-aggression pact with Germany after the two countries carved up spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. In 1941, after Germany started its campaign against Russia, Romania invaded and held Moldova until 1944, when Russia claimed it back. Russia was then given Moldova as part of the Paris Peace Treaties in 1947. 

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union again tried to “Russify” Moldova and foster a “Moldovan” nationality to separate it from neighboring Romania, which it did not control.  Language once again became a way to divide the two states. Russia forced Moldova to use the Cyrillic alphabet instead of the Romanian alphabet (which uses a variation of the Latin alphabet).

Moldova did not get its independence until 1991 – 44 years later. During this time, Moldova formally changed the alphabet back to the Latin Alphabet. Note these linguistic changes because divisions over them lead to a lot of tensions in the future. 

The end of the 1980s saw the breakup of the Soviet Union, and many countries experienced internal battles between nationalism, communism, and differing perspectives on where the future of the regions should go. Many of these conflicts have been active for decades; the Soviet Union repressed them but did not solve them, and the breakup of the USSR was just another stressor (think of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, and Moldova). 

Today, Moldova is grappling with what it means to be Moldovan with a Romanian heritage and Romanian language, Russian and Ukrainian influences, Turkish influences, and a history of conquest. Even the Moldovan government institutions are frustrated about describing the formal language of the country. The Moldovan constitution references a “Moldovan Language,” but the 1991 Declaration of Independence from the USSR refers to a “Romanian Language” because there is no consensus on whether Moldovan is an official language or just a dialect of Romanian.  

In 2004, Moldova held a referendum to define their language, and 87% of responders marked it as Moldovan. After years of tensions between Romania and Moldova over the idea of a “Moldovan Language,” Moldova recently approved a law mandating that all legislative texts refer to the national language as “Romanian.”

Further complicating matters is the distinction between the Moldovan Orthodox Church (which operates under the Russian Orthodox Church) and the Bessarabia Orthodox Church. 90% of the country identifies as orthodox – this is not a minor power. One must recognize the Russian Empire’s influences on the area.

These disputes are not just bureaucratic paper-pushing without symbolism or meaning. People on each side feel very strongly about their views. A Moldovan nationalism does exist, and some wish to remain independent with their own language, but some would like to see Moldova rejoin Romania. While ethnicity and language are the primary reasons, some want to unify with Romania for economic benefits. Finally, many wished to never leave the USSR and still have loyalty to Russia. 

Remember that throughout all the turmoil about Romanian or Moldovan national identity, a large part of the Moldovan population speaks Russian and Ukrainian and gravitates towards those states. 14% of the country identifies their primary language as Russian or Ukrainian, and almost everyone can understand Russian as a second language. In fact, Russian is used between different ethnic communities to communicate with each other. Fear about Moldova reintegrating with Romania is one of the key stressors that caused Transnistria to try and break away from Moldova. 

This area is a crossroads. People from the east migrated west and vice versa. Trying to have a central nationalism for any territory that has switched hands repeatedly is next to impossible. The divisions seen within Moldova are beyond ethnic tensions – they result from years of oppression from one side or the other and fear about where the country is headed. The tense truce that is Moldova may be the best answer. A state that is sectioned up with autonomous regions that cannot become independent themselves. 

Currently, Moldova is considered one of the poorest, if not the poorest, countries in Europe, and they have a declining population as people leave to try and find opportunities elsewhere. There are an estimated 2.6 million people in the country, with twenty percent (not counting Transnistria) estimated below the poverty line. The life expectancy is 69 years old.

The economy is further squeezed by the influx of refugees from the war in Ukraine and fewer remittances coming from Ukraine and Russia (where Moldovans work abroad and send money back home).

Moldova recently announced that it would discontinue its relationship with Gazprom (Russia’s largest energy provider) and start buying its gas from European suppliers. Gazprom still ships considerable amounts of gas to Transnistria, even after Moldova announced in December that they would no longer buy from Gazprom. 

This is a strategic decision due to the country experiencing its worst energy crisis since its founding. The EU has created a $14 million program to try and increase Moldova’s energy security to help with Moldovan’s desire to diversify its gas imports. Moldova officially applied to become an EU member in 2022, but the European Commission has requested that Moldova: “reform its judiciary, curb corruption and organized crime, get rid of oligarchs, reform public administration and finances, involve civil society and boost the protection of human rights.” 

Only time will tell whether Moldova can accomplish all of these demands while also trying to keep its economy afloat, but they made the case in May of 2023 that they have been progressing, and the EU should acknowledge this. 

Other Players to Consider

To complicate matters further, there is another autonomous region in southern Moldova called Gagauzia. They, too, have their own language called Gagauz and nationalism. Sadly, the Turkish-based language is quickly disappearing as fewer people speak it – most people speak Russian. Only a handful of books have been written in the language, which was only standardized in the 1950s. 

Gagauzia is located in the poorest region of Moldova. The region has been hit hard by the feud between Moldova and Russia. Combined with inflation and high energy costs, some in Gagauzia blame Moldova and the West for their problems and feel that Russia is a better solution. 

Previously held by the Ottoman Turks, Russia took it over in 1812 when Moldova was ceded. In 1991, after years of going back and forth with Moldova about its legal status, a referendum was held similar to what was seen in Transnistria. People in Gagauzia voted to remain part of the USSR. 

However, neither the referendum nor the declarations of independence or autonomy by the Gagauzia people and government were recognized in Moldova until 1994. After the region was granted autonomy, they could elect their own government. Gagauz was also made one of their official languages, alongside two others.

While Gagauzia does not have a Russian military presence like Transnistria, they have enjoyed freedoms from Russian sanctions or embargoes placed on Moldova in the past. Many people have lived and worked in Russia, and just like in Transnistria, some people were worried about conscription into the Russo-Ukrainian War. 

Many in Transnistria and Gagauzia are still pro-Russian, which is important because these areas comprise a good chunk of the western Ukrainian border. Parts of Gagauzia and its people spill into the Ukrainian territory. The worry continued after Gagauzia recently elected a pro-Russian governor (all candidates were pro-Russian) who said that she would seek closer ties with Russia. Moldova had acted a week before the elections with a raid on the political party offices of the Ilan Shor Party. Evghenia Gutul of the Ilan Shor Party was the winner of the election.  

Final Thoughts 

Transnistria’s future is uncertain. An identity crisis in Moldova is exacerbated by poverty, pressures from Russia, and many able-bodied people leaving the country. This crisis will probably continue to be egged on by Russia, which might inadvertently put pressure on Transnistria. This could be seen overtly if Russia tries to use it as a staging place for future Russian actions within Moldova, or it could be reactionary because Moldova may seek to solidify its borders to foster nationalism. One can never underestimate the power of the “rally around the flag effect.” 

There is a concern that the war in Ukraine may bring many of these “frozen conflicts” back to the forefront of international politics, but for now, simply knowing that there is an autonomous state called Transnistria is a good step in the direction toward understanding a little more about a complicated region and its people. 

A Few Parting Questions

Can the people’s will be accepted when their sources of information cannot be trusted? Can you have a democracy or even a collective agreement required of a governing body if the people do not have accurate information to work from? 

Can a region with different languages, ethnicities, and cultures unite under one banner? 

Is Transnistria a bargaining chip that both the West and the East can take out occasionally and wave around? A foothold in Eastern Europe. A planned permanent border forced to live under the pressure of always being one step away from being torn apart. 

Map Sources

Those who make the maps should always get credit for them.

First Map – Showing Moldova and Transnistria

Second Map – Displaying Bessarabian Gap

Resources

Anyone interested in learning more about Transnistria, Moldova, or the history of the region might appreciate the following resources (I have found or used each of these sources in the past – I do not earn anything by directing you to these articles):

Walking the tightrope towards the EU Great five-part report on Moldova, Transnistria, Gagauzia, and Russia interactions in the region.

Moldova Between Russia and the West: A Delicate Balance (Interesting article about Transistrian Geopolitical Placement)

Unrecognized Nations: Travels to Countries that Do Not Exist (A first-hand account of traveling to Transnistria and other autonomous territories)

Celebrating a nation that doesn’t exist (An article about Transnistrian culture)

Moldova and Romania: A Long and Complicated Relationship (Great article on the complicated history of Romania and Moldova)

Romania-Moldova reunification: Three scenarios

Republic of Moldova versus Romania: The Cold War of National Identities (A comprehensive paper on Moldovan and Romanian history – with maps)

Interactive Map of Roman Empire (includes trade routes, paths, etc.)

Russia’s New Generation Warfare in Ukraine: Implications for Latvian Defense Policy (Great look at Russia’s hybrid war strategy)

The Kremlin Playbook (A series of reports and a podcast by the Center for Strategic and International Studies)